Himalayan Disasters: Mitigation And Management of Risk Using Actionable Analytics

Abhishek Dimri
Assistant Professor I Sports Leader Coach I XLRI Jamshedpur PGDM(GM) Co’24 | Indian Army
Mitigation of risk refers to the strategies and actions taken to reduce the impact of potential risks. It involves developing a plan to manage, eliminate or limit setbacks as much as possible, ensuring that risks are understood and appropriate measures are taken to minimize their effects. This process includes operational processes, policies and technology designed to lower the probability or impact of risks, ultimately keeping them within an organization ‘s risk tolerance.
Himalayas are the youngest and most spectacular mountain ranges in the world. Spread over 2400 Kms and width ranging from 200 to 400 Kms. They are oriented West to East from Nanga Parbat(Jammu & Kashmir) till Namcha Barua (Arunachal Pradesh). They are divided into three main horizontal zones – Greater Himalayas, Lesser Himalayas and Shiwalik Region. They have highest mountain peaks in the world, are seismically active, an ecosystem of biodiversity, reservoir of fresh water in form of glaciers and origin of major river system of the world, rivers which quench thirst of billions.
Uttarakhand is one of the states which is nestled in all the horizons of the Himalayas and is bestowed with the blessings of water, pure air, flora and fauna, magical locations and destinations which provide solace, wellness and enlightenment to humanity since time immemorial. Due to its remoteness, Hills of Uttarakhand have seen mass migration tothe plains, metros for job opportunities and for livelihood.
During times of my Grandfather, it used to take days if not weeks to reach the Temple Town of Badrinath – Single and rugged track from Rishikesh to Srinagar (Garhwal), thereafter light vehicles and on foot; now the journey takes no more than 10-12 comfortable hours. We now have a fantastic highway which connect these places, towns and cities enroute. By year 2027 we are hopeful to have trains running from Rishikesh to Karanprayag, which will reduce the journey of 10-12 hours from Rishikesh to Badrinath to not more than 6 hours (when bypass from Helang to Marwari(ahead of Joshimath comes up)). What does it bring- Yes Lakhs and Lakhs of tourist, currently Badrinath Temple sees around 15 odd Lakh tourist travelling and paying their obeisance; Increased livelihood for Resorts, Restaurants, Oil Stations, Towns enroute, Organic food products, Travel and Tour operators etc. This may stem the tide of migration, as youth will find jobs in their own native place; who would like to leave such wonderful places, own home and work for pittance in cities and towns. Money maybe there in cities but dirt, pollution, ultra competition, a life without dignity and meaning, staying in pigeonholes etc are some of the things we never talk about and never monetize (Negative income).
Above paragraph is just an example of a specific zone of Himalayas. But similar is the story of town, cities, villages in rest of the Himalayas. Long people of Himalayas have stayed away from basics of communication, connectivity, jobs, privileges etc which people in mainland enjoyed and now slowly these necessities are trickling towards hills. But, along with development comes disasters in case things are not controlled. Himalayas are a sensitive zone, extremely fragile and now with climate change which is affecting the world over, these region sees catastrophic climatic events. They affect these places, original people and tourists in a major way and leave a scar which stops the clock for decades, generations are affected. Before I briefly touch upon disaster which stuck Harshil, let me talk about my Village. How a disaster in mid 60s changed the way a lively village used to be.
Jaikandi, now is pristine village nestled next to Mighty River Alaknanda, with National Highway Rishikesh- Badrinath bifurcating this village into two parts, there is a 700 student SGRR School (Now till 12th class), a mini Industrial area, a RTO office, a Stone Crusher, River bed Mining, ECHS for Ex Servicemen of the District, a Beautiful GMVN Guesthouse, a Jeepable track which has been built all along the upper village and yes, under construction Last Railway Station of Rishikesh – Karanprayag Rail line, lying just across the river connected by a huge river bridge. A dream destination, people scrouging for land in and around village as Karanprayag, a major town is now filled to its capacity and parents of school going children want to be next to the school and there are economic opportunities next to Highway. But what’s missing in complete picture of this village are the original inhabitants, I can count them on fingers, aged and old people who find it very difficult to leave what they call it their home.
What Happened – Till early 60s Jaikandi used to be known for prosperity, Milk and Sweets, huge fields filled with vegetables and cash crops, Shops and it was the ancient route to Adi Badri through village Dimmar -Simli. The original inhabitants of this village “Dimris” (who migrated from ancestral village of Dimmar) are the priest of Lord Shri Badri Vishal and still some of them do carry out this duty of priesthood in the temple of Shri Badrinathji. This village was an important point for trade with Tibet across Niti – Mana Pass. A prosperous village.
What changed was a disaster akin to what happened at Dharali near Harshil, an important town enroute to Gangotri Dham, wherein complete markets, resorts, restaurants have been wiped out from the map. Jaikandi Gad in early 60s (Seasonal Nullah), which is very pristine and flows down as a trickle, roared like an Angry Ocean, and Tsunami of raging water destroying all shops, establishment, fields, fruit bearing trees, which came in its path. Its said lot of tourist were also affected, for it was a pit stop for further journey to Badrinath and other location. Though we do not have any records. This natural disaster shattered everything – Dreams, Confidence and Aspirations. People of Hills, though very hardworking have not been supported since time immemorial during such disasters and due to remoteness rebuilding efforts have been naught. It caused migration of youth (my father’s generation) from Jaikandi. Though people have done well, A Major General, a Brigadier, a Colonel, a Captain, Businessmen, Principal of IHM, an IPS officer etc from this village. But now a deserted village I must say, a natural disaster took away laughter from this village. Though I am trying to revive this village, but its a Mount Everest of task, lets see. We do not have too much of resources, had it been, the story would have been different. This is the story of Himalayas and its life and struggle.
Now coming to Dharali and area around Harshil. The deluge which stuck on 5th August 2025 around 1:30 PM and what it took, not more than minutes, have destroyed not only the physical structure, caused loss of life and limbs but also dreams, aspirations and hope not will to fight and perverse against the odds. Whatever may be the reason Cloudburst, Glacial Lake outburst, places built on ancient flood plain etc. But they have caused extreme damage and one should ask people who have been affected in actuality. Lot of debates are happening around destruction of hills, development of roads, playing with nature etc; but I have a question, when the world is progressing, humanity is seeing increased compensation in terms of money for work, lifestyles are improving; can we leave people of Himalayas in penury. Speakers, panelist blaming Politicians, Bureaucrats, Resort owners, Business men, Government etc for cutting trees, building highways etc; Yes we can leave these places like what it is and not let an iota of development; but then what about the natives, do we want a complete migration of population to plains and do we want Himalaya to become No Men’s Land.
Development and protection of these fragile zones has to go hand in hand. We should have employment generation opportunities, connectivity, infrastructure project etc. But the most important thing is to save a human life and their source of livelihood. I am sure with aid pouring in, medical relief from various agencies, young and dynamic Chief Minister of State of Uttarakhand Shri Pushkar Singh Dhami personally monitoring the situation, spotlight in news and affiliated media, along with emotional support and a caring attitude by our great nation; people will again rebuild their lives. What we need is mitigation of risks to take informed decision.
Mitigation of Risk – Risk are part of our life, Humanity would have never progressed if we had not taken risk. Now we have technology, resources, hardware, capability to predict with certainty certain events which can affect people, businesses, regions, functions etc. We have the capability to crunch data both historic and situational, we have sensors, we have network connectivity, we have Artificial Intelligence. We can forewarn with near certainty which would allow policymakers to take decision, build up resources, people to take proactive action and reduce the impact of risks.
How it Can be done – Development of technology is a very costly and time consuming affair, we can partner with technologist, embed people on ground, take Insurance Agencies in loop. A combination of sensor with local intelligence and resources. Map areas which are disaster prone, monitor levels of glacial lakes, formation of dense clouds, sudden rise or drop of temperatures, changes in volume of river and other phenomena which I am sure fed real time to various models can give us a fair warning.
Actionable Analytics – Analytics which I am sure lots of people are into and most of the time they remain binded in Thesis, Research Papers needs to have some meaning. There is a race to undertake Doctorate, write thesis and research paper without any meaning or any end. We need analytics which helps us in taking real time informed decisions and they are very crucial for time critical events like natural disaster.
I wish if we had resources wherein we had modeled cloud density, local weather patterns, calculation of force of water under various circumstances, placed weather, glacial lakes, temperature monitoring sensors on top of Harshil Town, near River Khir Ganga and accentuated with Alaram system, Sirens, Mobile alerts etc, though sounding out of script of a Hollywood movie, lives could have been saved. Infrastructure can be rebuilt, but once a life has been lost, that grief, that pain, those memories can never be erased. Maybe this modeling and predictive analysis could have forewarned people from building permanent infrastructure in these critical areas.
Conclusion – Need of the hour is for Startups, Entreprises in the field of Risk Mitigation due to natural disaster in the Hills of Himalayas. They should have best of the technology, funding and support from governments and industries. They will save life, help businesses establish themselves in safe zone, help tourist and residents in times of catastrophes, help build a system of insurance mitigation of these risks. We need a fine and a delicate balance between preserving sensitive Himalayan region, aspirations of youth, commercial exploitation and building up of national level infrastructure projects. Need for the hour is to carryout a Pilot project and set up an enterprise to mitigate risks by using best of the technology available across the globe; Uttarakhand as a state can take the lead and setup a benchmark